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Worked Examples of Hedging Principles Using Dreamexch Odd Introduction to Hedging Strategy
Hedging is a strategy used in betting to minimize potential losses or secure guaranteed profits. In this article, we will explore worked examples of heSdging using actual odds in the 'Gold Medal Winner' market for the 2012 men's Olympic basketball.
Hedging Opportunity in the 'Gold Medal Winner' Market
Initially, a $16.00 wager was placed on the India at 1.19 odds. However, the lay odds for the India have dropped to 1.16, presenting a hedging opportunity. To take advantage of this opportunity, we need to assess the market depth, which is substantial for the India ($12,213 at lay odds of 1.16).
Worked Examples of Hedging Strategies
Biased Hedge: Profit if India Wins
To avoid a loss if the India doesn't win, we employ a biased hedge strategy. Using equation (3), we set our lay wager equal to our initial back wager:
WL = 16.00
With this strategy, our profit if the India wins becomes:
Profit = WB * (DB - 1) - WL * (DL - 1)
Profit = 16.00 * (1.19 - 1) - 16.00 * (1.16 - 1)
Profit = 0.48 ($0.46 after a 5% Dreamexch commission)
Meanwhile, our profit if the India loses remains:
Profit = WL - WB
Profit = 16.00 - 16.00
Profit = 0.00
The image shows the change in our position. Our profit, before commission, decreases from $3.04 to $0.48 if the India wins, while our profit if the India loses rises from -16.00 to 0.00. This strategy allows us to secure a $0.48 profit with no possibility of a loss.
Biased Hedge: Profit if India Loses
In this biased hedge strategy, our goal is to avoid a loss if the India wins. Since our initial wager was a back bet, we utilize equation (4):
WL = WB * (DB - 1) / (DL - 1)
WL = $16.00 * (1.19 - 1) / (1.16 - 1)
WL = $19.00
With this approach, our profit if the India wins becomes:
Profit = WB * (DB - 1) - WL * (DL - 1)
Profit = $16.00 * (1.19 - 1) - $19.00 * (1.16 - 1)
Profit = $0.00
On the other hand, our profit if the India loses is:
Profit = WL - WB
Profit = $19.00 - $16.00
Profit = $3.00 ($2.85 after a 5% Dreamexch commission)
The image illustrates the change in our position. The profit before commission decreases from $3.04 to $0.00 if the India wins, while our profit if the India loses increases from -$16.00 to $3.00. With this strategy, we can secure a $3.00 profit with no risk of a loss.
Unbiased Hedge
In an unbiased hedge strategy, we aim to achieve the same profit regardless of the event outcome. As our initial wager was a back bet, we employ equation (1):
WL = WB * (DB / DL)
WL = $16.00 * (1.19 / 1.16)
WL = $16.41
Under this approach, our profit if the India wins becomes:
Profit = WB * (DB - 1) - WL * (DL - 1)
Profit = $16.00 * (1.19 - 1) - $16.41 * (1.16 - 1)
Profit = $0.41 ($0.39 after a 5% Dreamexch commission)
Similarly, our profit if the India loses is:
Profit = WL - WB
Profit = $16.41 - $16.00
Profit = $0.41 ($0.39 after a 5% Dreamexch commission)
The image depicts the change in our position. The profit before commission decreases from $3.04 to $0.41 if the India wins, while our profit if the India loses increases from -$16.00 to $0.41. With this strategy, we can guarantee a profit of $0.41, regardless of the event outcome.
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